Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 4.589372 5.426785 6.353985 7.453955 8.720355 10.129648 11.813585
2025-06-08 3.210807 4.302363 5.646243 7.409376 9.646913 12.375792 15.937777
2025-06-15 2.538240 3.779857 5.449652 7.827512 11.088499 15.359998 21.325644
2025-06-22 1.981455 3.242834 5.076815 7.880764 11.988328 17.699922 26.133913
2025-06-29 1.578922 2.815450 4.743744 7.882831 12.752804 19.880131 30.912741
2025-07-06 1.276958 2.465857 4.443150 7.850231 13.413689 21.931727 35.670512
2025-07-13 1.162820 2.401148 4.574130 8.497594 15.176481 25.780042 43.452083
2025-07-20 1.012557 2.235275 4.497543 8.772899 16.349172 28.802070 50.211549
2025-07-27 0.897315 2.109093 4.464403 9.106569 17.639689 32.111926 57.696639
2025-08-03 0.764992 1.917546 4.272868 9.115449 18.347734 34.498296 63.842065
2025-08-10 0.625262 1.676692 3.940228 8.800770 18.417982 35.776341 68.191960
2025-08-17 0.504261 1.448273 3.590025 8.392558 18.249738 36.594079 71.776996
2025-08-24 0.425116 1.304572 3.402475 8.303334 18.713748 38.646665 77.829848
2025-08-31 0.358087 1.174856 3.223405 8.206891 19.155363 40.706944 84.093809
2025-09-07 0.331280 1.148225 3.282536 8.647088 20.754407 45.117005 95.095203
2025-09-14 0.288222 1.062684 3.180309 8.698951 21.527997 47.970165 103.335673
2025-09-21 0.249301 0.978284 3.064361 8.698955 22.183707 50.636253 111.406460
2025-09-28 0.214810 0.897507 2.941839 8.662566 22.749160 53.158085 119.370226
2025-10-05 0.210253 0.917607 3.103088 9.368669 25.098651 59.583621 135.651632
2025-10-12 0.192487 0.885518 3.108659 9.668807 26.520738 64.144591 148.412173
2025-10-19 0.178256 0.862415 3.136665 10.032547 28.131768 69.232179 162.599358
2025-10-26 0.156459 0.802666 3.040891 10.042211 28.873394 72.466435 173.091883
2025-11-02 0.129871 0.713271 2.831919 9.699139 28.689360 73.614523 179.193205